Options Monitor

CRCL triple Core + HV trigger: dealers short gamma at 8th pctile, put trampoline at 125, cascade to 135

CRCL is a fintech equity trading at $125.94; all three Core mechanistic flags are persistently active with net GEX at the 8th percentile (deeply short gamma), a put gamma wall at $125 providing trampoline support just 0.75% below spot, and call OI concentrated at 130/135 at the 96th percentile creating a delta-hedging cascade. Term structure is in severe backwardation (iv7d 84.5% vs iv30d 80.7%) confirming near-term stress, and HV is expanding (5d/20d ratio 1.54) as a weak F9 trigger. However, gex_flip_strike is NULL — no ceiling is identifiable, reducing target precision and requiring a conviction haircut. IV rank is low at 16.8% despite 80%+ absolute vol, and the iv-hv spread of -59% means options are deeply cheap relative to realized moves. This is a retail-driven fintech name where the dealer-positioning assumption is more reliable than for mega-caps.

HIMS FIRE: triple Core + F9 trigger, dealers max short gamma at 0th pctile, cascade through 27 strikes

HIMS is Hims & Hers Health, a mid-cap DTC telehealth/wellness company; net dealer GEX at the 0th percentile with persistent short gamma, a put trampoline at 24.0-24.5, and call OI cascade through 26-27 create a fully loaded reflexive squeeze setup. F9 price reclaim just fired. This is a retail-heavy options name where the customer-buys/dealer-sells assumption is highly reliable. Stock has collapsed from 64 to ~25 over 3 months — a massive drawdown that has loaded put gamma below spot and stacked call OI above. IV30d at 99.5% is elevated but the squeeze mechanics are about direction, not vol cheapness. The gex_flip_strike is null, which reduces target precision and caps conviction slightly, but the 0th percentile GEX reading and 100th percentile call OI above spot are extraordinary readings.

GME FIRE: triple Core + F5 amplification, dealers short gamma at 12th pctile, cascade through 25 call wall

GME is a retail-driven meme stock (GameStop Corp) with extremely high retail options participation; negative dealer GEX at the 12th percentile with a put gamma trampoline at 23.5 and concentrated call OI cascade at 25 creates a loaded reflexive feedback loop in a Reflation regime. IV rank is 12.3 with IV30d at 49.5% vs HV20d of 22.2%, meaning vol is elevated but not extreme by GME standards. Price reclaimed 10d MA at 24.39 vs MA of 23.99, triggering F9 (weak — price reclaim only, no HV expansion). The gex_flip_strike is null, which reduces target precision and requires a conviction haircut. This is a high-confidence retail name where the dealer-sells assumption is among the most reliable in the market.

IREN triple-Core FIRE: 0th pctile short GEX + put trampoline at 35 + call cascade at 45, price reclaiming MA10

IREN is a Bitcoin mining / AI data center infrastructure stock with heavy retail options activity; net dealer GEX sits at the 0th percentile (maximally short gamma), a concentrated put wall at 35 creates a trampoline floor, and 100th percentile call OI above spot with peak concentration at 45 sets a delta-hedging cascade path. Price just reclaimed the 10-day MA at 41.72, triggering F9 (weak — price reclaim only, no HV expansion). Term structure is in severe backwardation (IV7d 1.01 > IV90d 1.02, front-back spread -0.57%). Strike skew slope at the 97th percentile confirms heavy put-side demand. No gex_flip_strike identified — squeeze ceiling unknown, target precision reduced. Reflation regime supports 1.0× sizing.

GLXY triple Core + weak F9 trigger: dealer short gamma at 0th pctile, put trampoline at 21, cascade above 23

GLXY (Galaxy Digital) is a crypto-focused financial services firm; it trades as a levered proxy on Bitcoin and digital asset markets. Net dealer GEX at the 0th percentile with all three Core flags newly active creates a reflexive feedback loop: dealers are maximally short gamma near spot at $22.40, a put gamma wall at $21 provides trampoline support ~6% below, and call OI concentrated at the $23-$24.50 band (95th percentile) sets up a delta-hedging cascade on any upside move. Term structure is in severe backwardation (IV7d 92.5% vs IV90d 91%), and put/call skew is elevated (P/C OI ratio at 82nd percentile, strike slope at 92nd). Price has just reclaimed the 10-day MA ($21.88) providing a weak F9 trigger. No gex_flip_strike is identified, reducing target precision — but the mechanical setup is as loaded as this name gets. Regime is Reflation at 1.0× sizing.

MARA triple Core + F9 trigger: negative GEX at 8th pctile, put trampoline at 8, cascade at 10

MARA Holdings (formerly Marathon Digital) is a Bitcoin mining equity with high beta to BTC price; at $9.32 spot, dealers are deeply short gamma (8.7th percentile), a put wall at $8 provides trampoline support, and concentrated call OI at $10 creates a delta-hedging cascade target. Price has reclaimed 10-day MA, triggering F9. However, gex_flip_strike is null — no identifiable ceiling — reducing target precision. Term structure is in severe backwardation (iv7d 95.2% vs iv90d 94.2%) confirming near-term stress. This is a retail-heavy, high-vol crypto proxy where the dealer-positioning assumption is reliable. Reflation regime supports 1.0× sizing.

CRCL negative GEX at 8th pctile + put trampoline at 115, HV exploding—no flip strike caps precision

CRCL is a fintech equity trading at $115.34; dealers are deeply short gamma (8th percentile GEX) with a concentrated put wall at the 115 strike sitting 0.3% below spot, creating a loaded trampoline for upside reversal. HV is exploding (5d at 231% annualized, 99th percentile on 10d window) confirming F9 via HV expansion. However, the gex_flip_strike is NULL, meaning no ceiling can be identified and squeeze range estimation is imprecise. Term structure is in severe backwardation (front IV 80.9% vs 90d 77.4%) and strike skew is steep at the 92nd percentile, confirming heavy downside positioning. This is a retail-driven, low-institutional-overlap fintech name where the dealer-sells assumption is more reliable. No short interest data is available—this is purely a gamma squeeze thesis, not a short squeeze.