ReflationCurrent RegimeDay 42as of 2026-06-05
Pricing: Jul 16 (intraday)
KISS Model
KISS Model Portfolio — 2017-12-29 to 2026-06-05
Performance
Max DD -12.1%·CAGR +14.9%
| KISS | SPY | Excess | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALL | +222.8% | +176.4% | +46.4pp |
| 1Y | +27.3% | +25.1% | +2.2pp |
| 3M | +2.2% | +8.3% | -6.1pp |
| 1M | -0.1% | +1.9% | -2.0pp |
Current Allocation
SPY60%✓ at target
Gold0%⚠ target 30%
BTC0%⚠ target 10%
Cash40%residual
Recent Trades
151 totalMay 26
↓BTC0%↑Cash40%
May 20
↓BTC5%↑Cash35%
May 19
↓Gold0%↑Cash30%
Apr 20
↑BTC10%↓Cash15%
Apr 13
↑SPY60%↓Cash25%
KISS Portfolio Equity
KISSSPY
Goldilocks
Reflation
Inflation
Deflation
Drawdown
Goldilocks
Reflation
Inflation
Deflation
KISS Allocation
SPY
Gold
BTC
Cash
Trade Log
151 trades| Date | Regime | Changes |
|---|---|---|
| May 26, 2026 | Reflation | ↓BTC5%→0%↑Cash35%→40% |
| May 20, 2026 | Reflation | ↓BTC10%→5%↑Cash30%→35% |
| May 19, 2026 | Reflation | ↓Gold15%→0%↑Cash15%→30% |
| Apr 20, 2026 | Reflation | ↑BTC0%→10%↓Cash25%→15% |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Reflation | ↑SPY30%→60%↓Cash55%→25% |
| Apr 9, 2026 | Reflation | ↑SPY0%→30%↑Gold0%→15%↓Cash100%→55% |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Inflation | ↓SPY60%→0%↓Gold30%→0%↑Cash10%→100% |
| Nov 26, 2025 | Goldilocks | ↑SPY15%→60%↓Cash55%→10% |
| Nov 24, 2025 | Deflation | ↓SPY30%→15%↑Cash40%→55% |
| Nov 21, 2025 | Goldilocks | ↓SPY60%→30%↑Cash10%→40% |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Goldilocks | ↓BTC5%→0%↑Cash5%→10% |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Goldilocks | ↓BTC10%→5%↑Cash0%→5% |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Goldilocks | ↑BTC5%→10%↓Cash5%→0% |
| Sep 29, 2025 | Goldilocks | ↓BTC10%→5%↑Cash0%→5% |
| Jun 2, 2025 | Goldilocks | ↑SPY30%→60%↓Cash30%→0% |
| May 15, 2025 | Goldilocks | ↑SPY15%→30%↑BTC5%→10%↓Cash50%→30% |
| May 12, 2025 | Deflation | ↑BTC0%→5%↓Cash55%→50% |
| Apr 30, 2025 | Deflation | ↑SPY0%→15%↓Cash70%→55% |
| Apr 3, 2025 | Deflation | ↑Gold0%→30%↓Cash100%→70% |
| Mar 7, 2025 | Inflation | ↓Gold30%→0%↑Cash70%→100% |
| Mar 6, 2025 | Inflation | ↓SPY15%→0%↑Cash55%→70% |
| Mar 5, 2025 | Deflation | ↓SPY30%→15%↑Cash40%→55% |
| Mar 4, 2025 | Deflation | ↓SPY60%→30%↓BTC5%→0%↑Cash5%→40% |
| Feb 28, 2025 | Reflation | ↓BTC10%→5%↑Cash0%→5% |
| Oct 16, 2024 | Goldilocks | ↑BTC5%→10%↓Cash5%→0% |
| Oct 2, 2024 | Goldilocks | ↓BTC10%→5%↑Cash0%→5% |
| Sep 26, 2024 | Goldilocks | ↑BTC5%→10%↓Cash5%→0% |
| Aug 15, 2024 | Goldilocks | ↑SPY15%→60%↑BTC0%→5%↓Cash55%→5% |
| Aug 6, 2024 | Deflation | ↓SPY60%→15%↓BTC10%→0%↑Cash0%→55% |
| Jul 15, 2024 | Goldilocks | ↑BTC5%→10%↓Cash5%→0% |
| Jul 9, 2024 | Goldilocks | ↓BTC10%→5%↑Cash0%→5% |
| Jun 17, 2024 | Reflation | ↑Gold15%→30%↓Cash15%→0% |
| Apr 2, 2024 | Goldilocks | ↓Gold30%→15%↑Cash0%→15% |
| Mar 26, 2024 | Goldilocks | ↑Gold15%→30%↓Cash15%→0% |
| Mar 15, 2024 | Goldilocks | ↓Gold30%→15%↑Cash0%→15% |
| Mar 5, 2024 | Goldilocks | ↑Gold15%→30%↓Cash15%→0% |
| Feb 19, 2024 | Goldilocks | ↓Gold30%→15%↑Cash0%→15% |
| Dec 14, 2023 | Goldilocks | ↑Gold15%→30%↓Cash15%→0% |
| Dec 8, 2023 | Goldilocks | ↓Gold30%→15%↑Cash0%→15% |
| Dec 7, 2023 | Goldilocks | ↑Gold15%→30%↓Cash15%→0% |
| Nov 8, 2023 | Reflation | ↑SPY30%→60%↓Cash45%→15% |
| Nov 6, 2023 | Reflation | ↑SPY0%→30%↑Gold0%→15%↑BTC0%→10%↓Cash100%→45% |
| Oct 20, 2023 | Inflation | ↓SPY60%→0%↓BTC10%→0%↑Cash30%→100% |
| Oct 19, 2023 | Reflation | ↑BTC5%→10%↓Cash35%→30% |
| Oct 11, 2023 | Reflation | ↑SPY0%→60%↑BTC0%→5%↓Cash100%→35% |
| Oct 9, 2023 | Inflation | ↓SPY30%→0%↓BTC5%→0%↑Cash65%→100% |
| Oct 2, 2023 | Reflation | ↓SPY60%→30%↑Cash35%→65% |
| Aug 22, 2023 | Reflation | ↓BTC10%→5%↑Cash30%→35% |
| Aug 7, 2023 | Reflation | ↓Gold15%→0%↑Cash15%→30% |
| Jul 12, 2023 | Reflation | ↑Gold0%→15%↓Cash30%→15% |
| Jun 28, 2023 | Reflation | ↓Gold15%→0%↑Cash15%→30% |
| May 30, 2023 | Reflation | ↑SPY30%→60%↓Cash45%→15% |
| May 4, 2023 | Goldilocks | ↓SPY60%→30%↑Cash15%→45% |
| Apr 13, 2023 | Goldilocks | ↑SPY30%→60%↓Cash45%→15% |
| Mar 23, 2023 | Goldilocks | ↑SPY15%→30%↑BTC0%→10%↓Cash70%→45% |
| Mar 20, 2023 | Deflation | ↑SPY0%→15%↑Gold0%→15%↓Cash100%→70% |
| Mar 15, 2023 | Inflation | ↓Gold15%→0%↓BTC10%→0%↑Cash75%→100% |
| Mar 14, 2023 | Reflation | ↓SPY60%→0%↑Cash15%→75% |
| Jan 16, 2023 | Reflation | ↑BTC0%→10%↓Cash25%→15% |
| Jan 12, 2023 | Reflation | ↑SPY30%→60%↓Cash55%→25% |
| Jan 11, 2023 | Reflation | ↑SPY0%→30%↑Gold0%→15%↓Cash100%→55% |
| Jan 3, 2023 | Inflation | ↓SPY30%→0%↓Gold15%→0%↑Cash55%→100% |
| Jan 2, 2023 | Reflation | ↑SPY0%→30%↑Gold0%→15%↓Cash100%→55% |
| Dec 30, 2022 | Inflation | ↓SPY30%→0%↓Gold15%→0%↑Cash55%→100% |
| Dec 19, 2022 | Reflation | ↓SPY60%→30%↑Cash25%→55% |
| Dec 14, 2022 | Reflation | ↑SPY0%→60%↑Gold0%→15%↓Cash100%→25% |
| Jan 19, 2022 | Inflation | ↓SPY30%→0%↓Gold15%→0%↑Cash55%→100% |
| Jan 3, 2022 | Reflation | ↓BTC10%→0%↑Cash45%→55% |
| Dec 29, 2021 | Reflation | ↑SPY0%→30%↑Gold0%→15%↑BTC0%→10%↓Cash100%→45% |
| Nov 19, 2021 | Inflation | ↓SPY60%→0%↓Gold15%→0%↓BTC10%→0%↑Cash15%→100% |
| Nov 9, 2021 | Reflation | ↑Gold0%→15%↓Cash30%→15% |
| Sep 16, 2021 | Reflation | ↓Gold15%→0%↑Cash15%→30% |
| Sep 14, 2021 | Reflation | ↑Gold0%→15%↓Cash30%→15% |
| Sep 10, 2021 | Reflation | ↓Gold15%→0%↑Cash15%→30% |
| Aug 27, 2021 | Reflation | ↑Gold0%→15%↓Cash30%→15% |
| Aug 9, 2021 | Reflation | ↓Gold15%→0%↑Cash15%→30% |
| Aug 6, 2021 | Reflation | ↓Gold30%→15%↑Cash0%→15% |
| Aug 3, 2021 | Reflation | ↑Gold15%→30%↓Cash15%→0% |
| Jul 29, 2021 | Reflation | ↑Gold0%→15%↓Cash30%→15% |
| Jul 28, 2021 | Reflation | ↑BTC5%→10%↓Cash35%→30% |
| Jul 23, 2021 | Reflation | ↓Gold15%→0%↑Cash20%→35% |
| Jul 15, 2021 | Reflation | ↑Gold0%→15%↓Cash35%→20% |
| Jun 21, 2021 | Reflation | ↓Gold15%→0%↑Cash20%→35% |
| Jun 3, 2021 | Reflation | ↓Gold30%→15%↑Cash5%→20% |
| May 28, 2021 | Reflation | ↑Gold15%→30%↓Cash20%→5% |
| May 25, 2021 | Reflation | ↓BTC10%→5%↑Cash15%→20% |
| May 11, 2021 | Reflation | ↑Gold0%→15%↓Cash30%→15% |
| Apr 2, 2021 | Reflation | ↓Gold15%→0%↑Cash15%→30% |
| Jan 12, 2021 | Reflation | ↓Gold30%→15%↑Cash0%→15% |
| Dec 29, 2020 | Goldilocks | ↑Gold15%→30%↓Cash15%→0% |
| Dec 25, 2020 | Goldilocks | ↓Gold30%→15%↑Cash0%→15% |
| Dec 21, 2020 | Goldilocks | ↑Gold15%→30%↓Cash15%→0% |
| Nov 24, 2020 | Goldilocks | ↓Gold30%→15%↑Cash0%→15% |
| Apr 15, 2020 | Goldilocks | ↑SPY30%→60%↑BTC0%→10%↓Cash40%→0% |
| Apr 10, 2020 | Deflation | ↑SPY15%→30%↓Cash55%→40% |
| Mar 27, 2020 | Deflation | ↑SPY0%→15%↓Cash70%→55% |
| Mar 24, 2020 | Deflation | ↑Gold15%→30%↓Cash85%→70% |
| Mar 18, 2020 | Deflation | ↓Gold30%→15%↑Cash70%→85% |
| Feb 28, 2020 | Deflation | ↓SPY60%→0%↓BTC10%→0%↑Cash0%→70% |
| Jan 13, 2020 | Goldilocks | ↑BTC5%→10%↓Cash5%→0% |
| Jan 8, 2020 | Goldilocks | ↑BTC0%→5%↓Cash10%→5% |
| Dec 16, 2019 | Goldilocks | ↓BTC5%→0%↑Cash5%→10% |
| Nov 13, 2019 | Goldilocks | ↓BTC10%→5%↑Cash0%→5% |
| Oct 30, 2019 | Goldilocks | ↑BTC5%→10%↓Cash5%→0% |
| Oct 15, 2019 | Goldilocks | ↑SPY30%→60%↑BTC0%→5%↓Cash40%→5% |
| Oct 2, 2019 | Deflation | ↓SPY60%→30%↓BTC10%→0%↑Cash0%→40% |
| Sep 10, 2019 | Goldilocks | ↑SPY30%→60%↑BTC0%→10%↓Cash40%→0% |
| Aug 22, 2019 | Deflation | ↑SPY15%→30%↓Cash55%→40% |
| Aug 15, 2019 | Deflation | ↓SPY30%→15%↑Cash40%→55% |
| Aug 6, 2019 | Deflation | ↓BTC5%→0%↑Cash35%→40% |
| Aug 5, 2019 | Deflation | ↓SPY60%→30%↓BTC10%→5%↑Cash0%→35% |
| Jun 24, 2019 | Goldilocks | ↑SPY30%→60%↓Cash30%→0% |
| Jun 11, 2019 | Goldilocks | ↑SPY15%→30%↑BTC0%→10%↓Cash55%→30% |
| May 28, 2019 | Deflation | ↓SPY60%→15%↓BTC10%→0%↑Cash0%→55% |
| Apr 2, 2019 | Goldilocks | ↑BTC0%→10%↓Cash10%→0% |
| Mar 21, 2019 | Goldilocks | ↑SPY30%→60%↓Cash40%→10% |
| Mar 18, 2019 | Goldilocks | ↓BTC10%→0%↑Cash30%→40% |
| Mar 6, 2019 | Goldilocks | ↑BTC0%→10%↓Cash40%→30% |
| Mar 4, 2019 | Goldilocks | ↓BTC10%→0%↑Cash30%→40% |
| Feb 21, 2019 | Goldilocks | ↑SPY15%→30%↑BTC0%→10%↓Cash55%→30% |
| Jan 14, 2019 | Deflation | ↑SPY0%→15%↓Cash70%→55% |
| Dec 28, 2018 | Deflation | ↑Gold15%→30%↓Cash85%→70% |
| Dec 6, 2018 | Inflation | ↑Gold0%→15%↓Cash100%→85% |
| Aug 28, 2018 | Inflation | ↓SPY15%→0%↑Cash85%→100% |
| Aug 21, 2018 | Deflation | ↑SPY0%→15%↓Cash100%→85% |
| Aug 8, 2018 | Inflation | ↓SPY30%→0%↓BTC10%→0%↑Cash60%→100% |
| Jul 30, 2018 | Reflation | ↑SPY0%→30%↑BTC0%→10%↓Cash100%→60% |
| Jul 25, 2018 | Inflation | ↓SPY15%→0%↑Cash85%→100% |
| Jul 19, 2018 | Inflation | ↑SPY0%→15%↓Cash100%→85% |
| Jun 20, 2018 | Inflation | ↓SPY15%→0%↑Cash85%→100% |
| Jun 19, 2018 | Inflation | ↓SPY30%→15%↑Cash70%→85% |
| Jun 15, 2018 | Reflation | ↓Gold15%→0%↑Cash55%→70% |
| Jun 11, 2018 | Reflation | ↑Gold0%→15%↓BTC5%→0%↓Cash65%→55% |
| Jun 8, 2018 | Reflation | ↑SPY0%→30%↑BTC0%→5%↓Cash100%→65% |
| Jun 5, 2018 | Inflation | ↓Gold15%→0%↑Cash85%→100% |
| May 29, 2018 | Inflation | ↓SPY30%→0%↓BTC5%→0%↑Cash50%→85% |
| May 25, 2018 | Reflation | ↑Gold0%→15%↓BTC10%→5%↓Cash60%→50% |
| May 21, 2018 | Reflation | ↓Gold15%→0%↑Cash45%→60% |
| May 16, 2018 | Reflation | ↓Gold30%→15%↑Cash30%→45% |
| May 10, 2018 | Reflation | ↑SPY0%→30%↓Cash60%→30% |
| Apr 25, 2018 | Reflation | ↓SPY30%→0%↑Cash30%→60% |
| Apr 18, 2018 | Reflation | ↑BTC5%→10%↓Cash35%→30% |
| Apr 16, 2018 | Reflation | ↑SPY0%→30%↓Cash65%→35% |
| Apr 10, 2018 | Reflation | ↑BTC3%→5%↓Cash68%→65% |
| Apr 5, 2018 | Inflation | ↑BTC0%→3%↓Cash70%→68% |
| Apr 2, 2018 | Inflation | ↓BTC5%→0%↑Cash65%→70% |
| Mar 28, 2018 | Reflation | ↓SPY30%→0%↑Cash35%→65% |
| Mar 27, 2018 | Reflation | ↓BTC10%→5%↑Cash30%→35% |
| Mar 21, 2018 | Reflation | ↑BTC5%→10%↓Cash35%→30% |
| Mar 19, 2018 | Reflation | ↓BTC10%→5%↑Cash30%→35% |
| Mar 16, 2018 | Reflation | ↓SPY60%→30%↑Cash0%→30% |