MARA
$11.64Research & Monitoring
MARA triple Core + F9 trigger: negative GEX at 8th pctile, put trampoline at 8, cascade at 10
MARA Holdings (formerly Marathon Digital) is a Bitcoin mining equity with high beta to BTC price; at $9.32 spot, dealers are deeply short gamma (8.7th percentile), a put wall at $8 provides trampoline support, and concentrated call OI at $10 creates a delta-hedging cascade target. Price has reclaimed 10-day MA, triggering F9. However, gex_flip_strike is null — no identifiable ceiling — reducing target precision. Term structure is in severe backwardation (iv7d 95.2% vs iv90d 94.2%) confirming near-term stress. This is a retail-heavy, high-vol crypto proxy where the dealer-positioning assumption is reliable. Reflation regime supports 1.0× sizing.
Primary OTM call targeting the $10 peak call OI strike. With no confirmed gex_flip_strike, $10 is the cascade trigger where dealer delta-hedging accelerates. 28-42 DTE gives 2-3 weeks for the setup to resolve while li...
Entry: Enter on any pullback to $9.00-$9.30 that holds the 10-day MA ($8.77). Ideal entry if price consolidates above $9 for 2+ sessions. Confirm BTC is not breaking down simultaneously.
Risk: IV30d at 93.1% (ivRank 54.5) means premium is not cheap — this is a high-vol name and you're paying for it. No gex_flip_strike means no c...
Lottery ticket further OTM at $11-$12 strike with longer DTE. If BTC rallies and the cascade through $10 triggers a momentum extension, this pays 10:1+. The 49-63 DTE window captures the May expiry cycle where earning...
Entry: Only add this leg if F9 strengthens (HV expansion confirmation) or if MARA clears $10 with volume. Do not lead with this position.
Risk: Far OTM in a high-IV name — premium decay is aggressive. This is a 0.5% max allocation lottery position. Worthless if BTC stalls or rever...
Trade Talk (1)
MARA post-crash recovery ($6.72 low) with vol crush in progress — debate between patient wait for OTM $12-15 calls (Shane) vs calendar spread as vol-crush bridge (Trader). Structural disagreement on risk/reward: calendar caps upside at 25-30% while naked OTM calls offer 10x on a $10 breakout.
- Vol crush confirmed by both vol data and Shane's market read — hv10d (60.6%) already below iv30d (92.9%), forward VRP positive
- Shane's thesis: $10 gamma wall (87k call OI) was the exact squeeze ceiling; $9.30-$9.50 is the conviction trigger; when $10 breaks with vol expanding, buy OTM $12-15 April calls
- Trader calendar rationale: sell expensive Mar 20 front-month, retain cheap Apr back-month as long vol position — bridges crush now + hands off to expansion play later. Sinclair relative value framework.
Whale Episodes
Stored episode summaries for this symbol
No whale episodes stored for MARA.
IV 30d
93.5%
IV 60d
91.2%
IV 90d
89.2%
HV 20d
66.9%
IV Rank
48
IV-HV Spread
26.7%
Term Slope
-0.01
Structure
Backwrd
Skew (Slope)
-0.73
RV Forecast
90.6%
IV Term Structure
Historical Volatility Cone
Percentile bands (5/25/50/75/95th) with current HV highlighted
IV & HV Time Series
Vol Surface
Skew Profile
Positioning
Open Interest by Strike
Gamma Exposure (GEX) by Strike