MSTR

MSTR pinned 145-155 into 3/20, expansion to 170+ after expiry. MARA pinned <10, expansion to 12+ post-3/20.

• Call skew collapse from 2.40→1.55 concentrated in March expirations (40% drop)
• 3/6 150c OI doubled overnight — fresh conviction vs prior day intraday round-trips
• MARA 4/17 strangle positioning: 9p +4,988 OI and 15c +2,034 OI

MSTR squeeze to 150-170+ if 140 eclipsed, catalyzed by BTC >80k. MARA as higher-beta BTC play with 10 gamma wall.

• 3/20 160c at 51k OI is structural squeeze magnet — dealers short gamma
• 3/6 150c showed 22k intraday volume but only +159 OI — speculative round-trips
• MARA more flagged than MSTR (4/7 vs 3/7), richer call skew at 88.9th pct

MSTR $150c Mar-20 closed on Friday price trigger ($129 < $132 threshold). Friday close trigger from yesterday conversation fired cleanly. Position reduces to short $100p Sep-18 only, with $120 stop and 204 DTE remaining.

• Friday price trigger fired decisively — $129 vs $132 threshold, no ambiguity
• Call closed at $2.97 (ORATS model: $2.99, bid: $2.84) — clean execution at mid
• Call P&L: -$83.67 (-22.0% on $380.67 entry). The $140 gamma wall (38,079 OI) was never tested — the call never had a real chance at $150 once momentum stalled

MSTR risk reversal check-in: the F2 VRP signal (98.4th pct at entry) has fully normalized to INACTIVE — the original thesis edge has largely been captured. The $150c Mar-20 faces a 23-DTE clock with $140 gamma wall (38,353 OI) as the immediate obstacle. Plan is to exit the call into strength at $140 rather than waiting for $150.

• F2 VRP normalized since entry (98.4th pct → INACTIVE) — the put skew premium that justified the risk reversal has been captured; this is the single most important signal change
• Flag score dropped 4.0 → 2.0 since entry — only F3 (HV decel) and F4 (term structure) remain active
• Spot moved +$9.33 (+7.5%) from entry ($124.75 → $134.08) but $150c is still 11.9% OTM with only 23 DTE — time is the primary risk now

MSTR risk reversal check-in: F2 VRP fully normalized (98.4th pct → INACTIVE), original thesis edge captured. $150c Mar-20 faces 23-DTE clock with $140 gamma wall (38,353 OI) as immediate obstacle. Plan: exit call into strength at $140, do not wait for $150.

• F2 VRP normalized since entry — put skew premium captured; most important signal change of the check-in
• Flag score 4.0 → 2.0; only F3 (HV decel) and F4 (term structure) remain active
• Spot +7.5% from entry but $150c still 11.9% OTM with 23 DTE — time decay is now primary risk