ReflationCurrent RegimeDay 7as of 2026-04-17
Vol Dashboard/CRCL

CRCL

$99.59
IV30: 93.7%Rank: 22Regime: Reflation

Research & Monitoring

Squeeze:62FIREScan: 2026-04-24
F1 Net GEXNF2 Put WallPF5 Squeeze PressureNF8 Term BackwardationPF9 Reversal TriggerP
Draft — Unreviewed
CRCLDraft
2026-03-21

CRCL triple Core + HV trigger: dealers short gamma at 8th pctile, put trampoline at 125, cascade to 135

CRCL is a fintech equity trading at $125.94; all three Core mechanistic flags are persistently active with net GEX at the 8th percentile (deeply short gamma), a put gamma wall at $125 providing trampoline support just 0.75% below spot, and call OI concentrated at 130/135 at the 96th percentile creating a delta-hedging cascade. Term structure is in severe backwardation (iv7d 84.5% vs iv30d 80.7%) confirming near-term stress, and HV is expanding (5d/20d ratio 1.54) as a weak F9 trigger. However, gex_flip_strike is NULL — no ceiling is identifiable, reducing target precision and requiring a conviction haircut. IV rank is low at 16.8% despite 80%+ absolute vol, and the iv-hv spread of -59% means options are deeply cheap relative to realized moves. This is a retail-driven fintech name where the dealer-positioning assumption is more reliable than for mega-caps.

IV Rank
VRP
Term
F4neutral
Skew-
Catalystcheck calendar
long_calllong

Peak call OI at 135 creates the delta-hedging cascade target. 135 strike in the Apr 10-17 expiry captures the reflexive loop if spot clears 130. IV rank at 17% means OTM calls are historically cheap despite high absol...

Entry: Enter on any pullback to the 125 put wall or on a decisive close above 130 confirming cascade initiation. Prefer Apr 17 (28 DTE) 135C.

Risk: No gex_flip_strike identified — squeeze ceiling unknown. Stock dropped from 240 to 126 in 3 months; this is a falling knife bounce setup....

long_calllong

130 strike sits at the first major call OI cluster (7,013 weighted OI) and is only 3.2% above spot. Higher delta captures more of the initial move through the cascade zone. If dealers are forced to delta-hedge through...

Entry: Enter on confirmation of spot holding above 125 put wall for 2 consecutive sessions. Prefer Apr 17 (28 DTE) 130C.

Risk: Higher delta means more premium at risk. Same falling-knife and missing-flip-strike caveats apply. Term backwardation means near-dated IV...

IV Rank: 17IV30d: 80.7%Regime: ReflationScore: 77

Paper Trades (1)

CRCL$100/$110 Call Spread
SWARMbullish
Order Ticket2-Leg
BUY1CRCL 15 MAY 26 100 C8.908.989.25
SELL1CRCL 15 MAY 26 110 C4.955.245.60
Net Debit$3.84($384)
$0.10(-2.6%)
Debit $3.84→$3.74
Spot $96.58→$98.44
20 DTEΔ +0.16Θ $-0.01/day
-$3.84+$6.16
Exp May 15, 2026Priced 2026-04-24

Whale Episodes

Stored episode summaries for this symbol

Open monitor →

No whale episodes stored for CRCL.

IV 30d

93.7%

IV 60d

89.0%

IV 90d

87.5%

HV 20d

89.4%

IV Rank

22

IV-HV Spread

4.3%

Term Slope

0.05

Structure

Contango

Skew (Slope)

-0.23

RV Forecast

89.4%

IV Term Structure

7d
83.6%
30d
93.7%
60d
89.0%
90d
87.5%
180d
84.8%
365d
82.2%

Historical Volatility Cone

Percentile bands (5/25/50/75/95th) with current HV highlighted

IV & HV Time Series

MARKET CLOSED
IV 30d
IV 60d
HV 20d
CRCL Price (right axis)
IV Rank

Vol Surface

25d (OTM put)
40d
ATM
60d
75d (OTM call)
Cal Vol

Skew Profile

Current: -0.23Pctile: 63th25/75: -2.3 / 0.1
Strike Slope (skew)
Curvature (smile)
Mean

Positioning

Call OI: 150,870Put OI: 116,979P/C: 0.78Max GEX: $100

Open Interest by Strike

Call OI
Put OI
Spot

Gamma Exposure (GEX) by Strike

Positive GEX (support)
Negative GEX (resistance)