CRCL
$63.85Research & Monitoring
CRCL triple Core + HV trigger: dealers short gamma at 8th pctile, put trampoline at 125, cascade to 135
CRCL is a fintech equity trading at $125.94; all three Core mechanistic flags are persistently active with net GEX at the 8th percentile (deeply short gamma), a put gamma wall at $125 providing trampoline support just 0.75% below spot, and call OI concentrated at 130/135 at the 96th percentile creating a delta-hedging cascade. Term structure is in severe backwardation (iv7d 84.5% vs iv30d 80.7%) confirming near-term stress, and HV is expanding (5d/20d ratio 1.54) as a weak F9 trigger. However, gex_flip_strike is NULL — no ceiling is identifiable, reducing target precision and requiring a conviction haircut. IV rank is low at 16.8% despite 80%+ absolute vol, and the iv-hv spread of -59% means options are deeply cheap relative to realized moves. This is a retail-driven fintech name where the dealer-positioning assumption is more reliable than for mega-caps.
Peak call OI at 135 creates the delta-hedging cascade target. 135 strike in the Apr 10-17 expiry captures the reflexive loop if spot clears 130. IV rank at 17% means OTM calls are historically cheap despite high absol...
Entry: Enter on any pullback to the 125 put wall or on a decisive close above 130 confirming cascade initiation. Prefer Apr 17 (28 DTE) 135C.
Risk: No gex_flip_strike identified — squeeze ceiling unknown. Stock dropped from 240 to 126 in 3 months; this is a falling knife bounce setup....
130 strike sits at the first major call OI cluster (7,013 weighted OI) and is only 3.2% above spot. Higher delta captures more of the initial move through the cascade zone. If dealers are forced to delta-hedge through...
Entry: Enter on confirmation of spot holding above 125 put wall for 2 consecutive sessions. Prefer Apr 17 (28 DTE) 130C.
Risk: Higher delta means more premium at risk. Same falling-knife and missing-flip-strike caveats apply. Term backwardation means near-dated IV...
Whale Episodes
Stored episode summaries for this symbol
2026-06-18 120C
active · first seen 2026-05-04 · roll detected
score 4.84
OI 7,981
2026-06-18 140C
active · first seen 2026-05-11 · roll detected
score 4.28
OI 6,275
2026-06-05 105P
active · first seen 2026-05-18 · roll detected
score 7.87
OI 934
2026-06-05 75P
active · first seen 2026-05-29
score 11.59
OI 9,267
2026-06-05 140C
active · first seen 2026-06-01
score 8.46
OI 1,954
2026-06-05 120C
active · first seen 2026-05-27 · roll detected
score 6.57
OI 3,580
IV 30d
92.2%
IV 60d
92.6%
IV 90d
91.1%
HV 20d
91.0%
IV Rank
77
IV-HV Spread
1.2%
Term Slope
0.75
Structure
Contango
Skew (Slope)
0.02
RV Forecast
92.3%
IV Term Structure
Historical Volatility Cone
Percentile bands (5/25/50/75/95th) with current HV highlighted
IV & HV Time Series
Vol Surface
Skew Profile
Positioning
Open Interest by Strike
Gamma Exposure (GEX) by Strike